FEATURE: 2019 Tony Award Predictions

As we get closer to the 73rd Annual Tony Awards (Sunday, June 9th on CBS starting at 8pm ET), here’s my take on what and who “should win” versus what and who “will win”, along with some short thoughts and analysis.  Disagree?  Comment below or shoot me an email!  Show names hyperlink to my reviews and where to buy tickets.

Best Play
“Choir Boy”, by Tarell Alvin McCraney
“The Ferryman”, by Jez Butterworth
“Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus”, by Taylor Mac
“Ink”, by James Graham
“What the Constitution Means to Me”, by Heidi Schreck

SHOULD WIN: “What the Constitution Means to Me”
WILL WIN: “What the Constitution Means to Me”

2018-2019 was a great season for new plays on Broadway.  With “To Kill a Mockingbird” snubbed of a nomination, this fight really comes down to “The Ferryman” vs. “What the Constitution Means to Me”.  The American Theatre Wing has a grand tradition of recognizing great American plays that incisively capture the spirit of the zeitgeist.  No play on Broadway this season does that better than Heidi Schreck’s “What the Constitution Means to Me”.  After coming in as a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize and racking up a host of other industry awards, I predict enough Tony voters will want to see it cross the finish line.

Best Musical
“Ain’t Too Proud—The Life and Times of The Temptations”
“Beetlejuice”
“Hadestown”
“The Prom”
“Tootsie”

SHOULD WIN: “Hadestown”
WILL WIN: “Tootsie”

After several seasons where this category was a forgone conclusion, we have a real race on our hands this year.  I can envision separate scenarios in which four of these shows (sorry, “Beetlejuice”) take home the top prize of the night.  If you’ve read my review, you know I think “Hadestown” is on the very short list of the best new musicals since “Hamilton”, but “critical best” doesn’t always equate to “Tony Award best” (remember, “Two Gentlemen of Verona” beat “Follies” in 1972!).  “Tootsie” is easier to access than “Hadestown”, and after several years of serious and artistic shows winning, voters might be ready to reward a big musical comedy with brand name recognition and the broader potential to tour.  It's the difference between a musical that makes you lean in and a musical that makes you sit back.  All this said, I am most prepared to get this category wrong (and hope I do!).

Best Revival of a Play
“All My Sons”
“The Boys in the Band”, by Mart Crowley
“Burn This”
“Torch Song”, by Harvey Fierstein
“The Waverly Gallery”, by Kenneth Lonergan

SHOULD WIN: “All My Sons”
WILL WIN: “All My Sons”

There wasn’t a better foursome in a play this season than Tracy Letts, Annette Bening, Benjamin Walker, and Hampton Fluker in director Jack O’Brien’s pitch-perfect rendering of Arthur Miller’s “All My Sons”.  It seems hard to beat to me.  “The Waverly Gallery” could come close, or, if voters are hankering for some much belated recognition, they could award Mart Crowley a long-overdue Tony for “The Boys in the Band”—the landmark gay play from 1968 that received its first Broadway production last summer.  Both plays have since closed, though, while “All My Sons” runs through the end of June.  History suggests it has that in its favor.

Best Revival of a Musical
“Kiss Me, Kate”
“Oklahoma!”

SHOULD WIN: “Oklahoma!”
WILL WIN: “Oklahoma!”

One of the best musical revivals ever, Daniel Fish’s revolutionary “Oklahoma!” should be a slam dunk.  

Best Director of a Play
Rupert Goold, “Ink”
Sam Mendes, “The Ferryman”
Bartlett Sher, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
Ivo van Hove, “Network”
George C. Wolfe, “Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus”

SHOULD WIN: Bartlett Sher, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
WILL WIN: Sam Mendes, “The Ferryman”

The haunting suite of performances Bartlett Sher elicits from his cast is breathtaking.  But, “The Ferryman” moves and breathes like a symphony—there is so much vibrancy and life on the stage—masterfully ordered and shaped by Sam Mendes, who has never won a Tony for directing.

Best Director of a Musical
Rachel Chavkin, “Hadestown”
Scott Ellis, “Tootsie”
Daniel Fish, “Oklahoma!”
Des McAnuff, “Ain’t Too Proud”
Casey Nicholaw, “The Prom”

SHOULD WIN: Rachel Chavkin, “Hadestown”
WILL WIN: Daniel Fish, “Oklahoma!”

While I simply adore Rachel Chavkin’s exquisite work in crafting “Hadestown”—she’s one of few modern day auteurs in the musical theatre—no director of a musical’s imprint was more strongly and successfully felt this season than Daniel Fish’s.  His production of “Oklahoma!” is brilliant, and flows entirely from his revolutionary vision for re-imagining the piece. I wish there were a separate Tony Award for best director of a revival. 

Best Choreography
Camille A. Brown, “Choir Boy”
Warren Carlyle, “Kiss Me, Kate”
Denis Jones, “Tootsie”
David Neumann, “Hadestown”
Sergio Trujillo, “Ain’t Too Proud”

SHOULD WIN: Warren Carlyle, “Kiss Me, Kate”
WILL WIN: Warren Carlyle, “Kiss Me, Kate”

Warren Carlyle’s thrilling, “too darn hot” choreography for “Kiss Me, Kate” was easily the best part of an otherwise disappointing revival.  He’s earned every ounce of this Tony.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Paddy Considine, “The Ferryman”
Bryan Cranston, “Network”
Jeff Daniels, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
Adam Driver, “Burn This”
Jeremy Pope, “Choir Boy”

SHOULD WIN: Bryan Cranston, “Network”
WILL WIN: Bryan Cranston, “Network”

The first thing I said after seeing “Network” was that Bryan Cranston would win the Tony Award.  His performance is a captivating tour-de-force.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Annette Bening, “All My Sons”
Laura Donnelly, “The Ferryman”
Elaine May, “The Waverly Gallery”
Janet McTeer, “Bernhardt/Hamlet”
Laurie Metcalf, “Hillary and Clinton”
Heidi Schreck, “What the Constitution Means to Me”

SHOULD WIN: Heidi Schreck, “What the Constitution Means to Me”
WILL WIN: Elaine May, “The Waverly Gallery”

Heidi Schreck’s finely tuned performance in her play, “What the Constitution Means to Me”, is both a master class in acting and a stunningly brave act of personal storytelling.  That said, Elaine May will win this award, and it is remarkably well-deserved.  Her performance in “The Waverly Gallery” was a season highlight, and caps an extraordinary career. 

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Bertie Carvel, “Ink”
Robin De Jesús, “The Boys in the Band”
Gideon Glick, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
Brandon Uranowitz, “Burn This”
Benjamin Walker, “All My Sons”

SHOULD WIN: Gideon Glick, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
WILL WIN: Gideon Glick, “To Kill a Mockingbird”

No category better exhibits the increasingly invisible line between actors who do musicals and actors who do plays than this one.  All five are seasoned vets of musical theatre.  All five were fantastic in their plays.  For me, Gideon Glick’s delicately shaded and beautifully queer characterization of Dill in “To Kill a Mockingbird” rises to the top of this class.  But of all the acting categories, I’m most prepared for this to be a toss-up.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Fionnula Flanagan, “The Ferryman”
Celia Keenan-Bolger, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
Kristine Nielsen, “Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus”
Julie White, “Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus”
Ruth Wilson, “King Lear”

SHOULD WIN: Celia Keenan-Bolger, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
WILL WIN: Celia Keenan-Bolger, “To Kill a Mockingbird”

Casting a 40 year old actor to play a six-year old girl was a gamble only if you’ve never seen Celia Keenan-Bolger in action.  As the anchor of Aaron Sorkin’s gorgeous and haunting adaptation of “To Kill a Mockingbird”, she gives an astounding and disarming performance at once playful and heartbreaking.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Stephanie J. Block, “The Cher Show”
Caitlin Kinnunen, “The Prom”
Beth Leavel, “The Prom”
Eva Noblezada, “Hadestown”
Kelli O’Hara, “Kiss Me, Kate”

SHOULD WIN: Beth Leavel, “The Prom”
WILL WIN: Stephanie J. Block, “The Cher Show”

The somehow Tony-less Stephanie J. Block doesn’t play Cher.  She is Cher.  This is her year.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas, “The Prom”
Derrick Baskin, “Ain’t Too Proud”
Alex Brightman, “Beetlejuice”
Damon Daunno, “Oklahoma!”
Santino Fontana, “Tootsie”

SHOULD WIN: Santino Fontana, “Tootsie”
WILL WIN: Santino Fontana, “Tootsie”

Separating the content of the show from the quality of the performance, there is no doubt that Santino Fontana is doing some remarkable work as Michael Dorsey/Dorothy Michaels in “Tootsie”.  While I don’t love the show, I can still see that.  This one feels like it is in the bag (and has been for a while).

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
André De Shields, “Hadestown”
Andy Grotelueschen, “Tootsie”
Patrick Page, “Hadestown”
Jeremy Pope, “Ain’t Too Proud”
Ephraim Sykes, “Ain’t Too Proud”

SHOULD WIN: André De Shields, “Hadestown”
WILL WIN: André De Shields, “Hadestown”

When you need a mythical god, it helps to cast a theatrical one.  André De Shields is celebrating his 50th anniversary as a performing artist this year, and despite having given us The Wiz, The Viper, The Jester, and The Horse, he has never won a Tony Award.  That changes—and this injustice ends!—on June 9th.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Lilli Cooper, “Tootsie”
Amber Gray, “Hadestown”
Sarah Stiles, “Tootsie”
Ali Stroker, “Oklahoma!”
Mary Testa, “Oklahoma!”

SHOULD WIN: Ali Stroker, “Oklahoma!”
WILL WIN: Ali Stroker, “Oklahoma!”

If you have seen “Oklahoma!”, you know why Ali Stroker leads this extraordinary field of performers.  Her ultra-horny, Dolly Parton-inspired Ado Annie is a highlight of the show, and is another feather in the cap of her young but trailblazing career as the first performer in a wheelchair in a Broadway show (2015’s revival of “Spring Awakening”) and both the first Ado Annie and the first performer in a wheelchair ever to be nominated for a Tony Award.

Best Book of a Musical
“Ain’t Too Proud”, by Dominique Morisseau
“Beetlejuice”, by Scott Brown and Anthony King
“Hadestown”, by Anaïs Mitchell
“The Prom”, by Bob Martin and Chad Beguelin
“Tootsie”, by Robert Horn

SHOULD WIN: “The Prom”, by Bob Martin and Chad Beguelin
WILL WIN: “Tootsie”, by Robert Horn

Bob Martin and Chad Beguelin’s book for “The Prom” is the funniest of any new musical this season (and arguably, the funniest of any musical on Broadway).  The duo has also crafted an original story inspired by the headlines that is both heartwarming and perfectly beat.  If I was in charge of giving out Tony Awards, they’d get ‘em.  Alas, I am not.  I suspect Robert Horn’s crowd (but not this critic!)-pleasing book for “Tootsie” will win.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
“Be More Chill”, by Joe Iconis
“Beetlejuice”, by Eddie Perfect
“Hadestown”, by Anaïs Mitchell
“The Prom”, by Matthew Sklar and Chad Beguelin
“To Kill a Mockingbird”, by Adam Guettel
“Tootsie”, by David Yazbek

SHOULD WIN: “Hadestown”, by Anaïs Mitchell
WILL WIN: “Hadestown”, by Anaïs Mitchell

A surprise six nominees round out this category (hi, Adam Guettel), but the winner is clear.  Anaïs Mitchell’s indie-folk Americana score for the almost entirely-sung-through “Hadestown” sounds like no musical you have ever seen before.  It’s sumptuous poetry.  It’s a gift from the gods.  It’s a Tony winner.

Best Orchestrations
Michael Chorney and Todd Sickafoose, “Hadestown”
Larry Hochman, “Kiss Me, Kate”
Daniel Kluger, “Oklahoma!”
Simon Hale, “Tootsie”
Harold Wheeler, “Ain’t Too Proud”

SHOULD WIN: Michael Chorney and Todd Sickafoose, “Hadestown”
WILL WIN: Daniel Kluger, “Oklahoma!”

The texture of Anaïs Mitchell’s score for “Hadestown” is fully exploited for all its richness in Michael Chorney and Todd Sickafoose’s orchestrations for the onstage band, but Daniel Kluger’s bluegrass reimagining of Richard Rodgers’ iconic score will likely tip the scale in his favor.  I’m happy with either outcome.

Turning to the design awards, I’ll offer only my “should win” opinions.

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Miriam Buether, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
Bunny Christie, “Ink”
Rob Howell, “The Ferryman”
Santo Loquasto, “Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus”
Jan Versweyveld, “Network”

SHOULD WIN: Rob Howell, “The Ferryman”

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini, “Ain’t Too Proud”
Peter England, “King Kong”
Rachel Hauck, “Hadestown”
Laura Jellinek, “Oklahoma!”
David Korins, “Beetlejuice”

SHOULD WIN: David Korins, “Beetlejuice”

Best Costume Design of a Play
Rob Howell, “The Ferryman”
Toni-Leslie James, “Bernhardt/Hamlet”
Clint Ramos, “Torch Song”
Ann Roth, “Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus”
Ann Roth, “To Kill a Mockingbird”

SHOULD WIN: Rob Howell, “The Ferryman”

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Michael Krass, “Hadestown”
William Ivey Long, “Beetlejuice”
William Ivey Long, “Tootsie”
Bob Mackie, “The Cher Show”
Paul Tazewell, “Ain’t Too Proud”

SHOULD WIN: Bob Mackie, “The Cher Show”

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Neil Austin, “Ink”
Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer, “Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus”
Peter Mumford, “The Ferryman”
Jennifer Tipton, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
Jan Versweyveld and Tal Yarden, “Network”

SHOULD WIN: Jan Versweyveld and Tal Yarden, “Network”

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kevin Adams, “The Cher Show”
Howell Binkley, “Ain’t Too Proud”
Bradley King, “Hadestown”
Peter Mumford, “King Kong”
Kenneth Posner and Peter Nigrini, “Beetlejuice”

SHOULD WIN: Bradley King, “Hadestown”

Best Sound Design of a Play
Adam Cork, “Ink”
Scott Lehrer, “To Kill a Mockingbird”
Fitz Patton, “Choir Boy”
Nick Powell, “The Ferryman”
Eric Sleichim, “Network”

SHOULD WIN: Eric Sleichim, “Network”

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Peter Hylenski, “Beetlejuice”
Peter Hylenski, “King Kong”
Steve Canyon Kennedy, “Ain’t Too Proud”
Drew Levy, “Oklahoma!”
Nevin Steinberg and Jessica Paz, “Hadestown”

SHOULD WIN: Drew Levy, “Oklahoma!”

My predictions in total:

“Oklahoma!” – 5
“Tootsie” – 4
“Hadestown” – 3
“Network” – 3
“The Ferryman” – 3
“The Cher Show” – 2
“To Kill a Mockingbird” – 2
“All My Sons” – 1
“Beetlejuice” – 1
“Kiss Me, Kate” – 1
“The Waverly Gallery” – 1
“What the Constitution Means to Me” – 1